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Detailed Reference Information |
Moore, J.C., Grinsted, A. and Jevrejeva, S. (2005). New tools for analyzing time series relationships and trends. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 86: doi: 10.1029/2005EO240003. issn: 0096-3941. |
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Geophysical studies are plagued by short and noisy time series. These time series are typically nonstationary, contain various long-period quasi-periodic components, and have rather low signal-to-noise ratios and/or poor spatial sampling. Classic examples of these time series are tide gauge records, which are influenced by ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns, twentieth-century warming, and other long-term variability. Remarkable progress recently has been made in the statistical analysis of time series. Ghil et al. <2002> presented a general review of several advanced statistical methods with a solid theoretical foundation. This present article highlights several new approaches that are easy to use and that may be of general interest. Extracting trends from data is a key element of many geophysical studies; however, when the best fit is clearly not linear, it can be difficult to evaluate appropriate errors for the trend. Here, a method is suggested of finding a data-adaptive nonlinear trend and its error at any point along the trend. The method has significant advantages over, e.g., low-pass filtering or fitting by polynomial functions in that as the fit is data adaptive, no preconceived functions are forced on the data; the errors associated with the trend are then usually much smaller than individual measurement errors. |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Mathematical Geophysics, Time series analysis (1872, 4277, 4475), Global Change, Climate dynamics (0429, 3309), Global Change, Sea level change (1222, 1225, 4556) |
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Journal
Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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