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Moore et al. 2005
Moore, J.C., Grinsted, A. and Jevrejeva, S. (2005). New tools for analyzing time series relationships and trends. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 86: doi: 10.1029/2005EO240003. issn: 0096-3941.

Geophysical studies are plagued by short and noisy time series. These time series are typically nonstationary, contain various long-period quasi-periodic components, and have rather low signal-to-noise ratios and/or poor spatial sampling. Classic examples of these time series are tide gauge records, which are influenced by ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns, twentieth-century warming, and other long-term variability. Remarkable progress recently has been made in the statistical analysis of time series. Ghil et al. <2002> presented a general review of several advanced statistical methods with a solid theoretical foundation. This present article highlights several new approaches that are easy to use and that may be of general interest. Extracting trends from data is a key element of many geophysical studies; however, when the best fit is clearly not linear, it can be difficult to evaluate appropriate errors for the trend. Here, a method is suggested of finding a data-adaptive nonlinear trend and its error at any point along the trend. The method has significant advantages over, e.g., low-pass filtering or fitting by polynomial functions in that as the fit is data adaptive, no preconceived functions are forced on the data; the errors associated with the trend are then usually much smaller than individual measurement errors.

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Abstract

Keywords
Mathematical Geophysics, Time series analysis (1872, 4277, 4475), Global Change, Climate dynamics (0429, 3309), Global Change, Sea level change (1222, 1225, 4556)
Journal
Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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