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Detailed Reference Information |
Christiansen, B. (2005). Downward propagation and statistical forecast of the near-surface weather. Journal of Geophysical Research 110. doi: 10.1029/2004JD005431. issn: 0148-0227. |
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We investigate the potential for using the downward propagation of anomalies from the stratosphere to the troposphere in extended-range statistical forecasts. Considering the near-surface zonal mean zonal wind at 60¿N and the near-surface temperature in northern Europe as predictands, we find that the inclusion of stratospheric information improves the daily forecast on lead times larger than 5 days. The best forecasts are obtained for predictors in the lower stratosphere. Similar predictions cannot be obtained if the statistical forecast only includes tropospheric information. The simple statistical forecast based on stratospheric winds compares favorably to the forecasts of a state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction system. The statistical forecast can be substantially improved by considering only strong stratospheric anomalies and by predicting averaged values. |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Atmospheric Processes, Stratosphere/troposphere interactions, Atmospheric Processes, Middle atmosphere dynamics (0341, 0342), Atmospheric Processes, General circulation, extended range weather forecast, downward propagation, troposphere-stratosphere coupling |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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