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Harris et al. 2005
Harris, J.M., Draxler, R.R. and Oltmans, S.J. (2005). Trajectory model sensitivity to differences in input data and vertical transport method. Journal of Geophysical Research 110: doi: 10.1029/2004JD005750. issn: 0148-0227.

In this study, trajectory model sensitivity to the input meteorological data and vertical transport method is quantified. ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets are used to compare isentropic and kinematic 3-D tropospheric trajectories. Expanding on previous trajectory sensitivity studies, we accumulate deviation statistics for an entire year and for three geographically diverse sites. The horizontal trajectory deviations are summarized as a percentage of average distance traveled. These results allow ranking from least to greatest among the five causes of trajectory uncertainty investigated here: minor differences in computational methodology, 3--4%; time interpolation, 9--25%; vertical transport method, 18--34%; meteorological input data, 30--40%; and combined two-way differences in vertical transport method and meteorological input data, 39--47%. Although the deviations are somewhat dependent on starting location because of the influence of meteorology, at all three sites, 3-D trajectories attained higher elevations and wind speeds than isentropic trajectories. In addition, deviation statistics for 3-D trajectories exceeded those for isentropic trajectories. The reasons for this derive from uncertainties in the supplied vertical wind fields and the higher wind speeds in 3-D trajectories on the one hand and the vertical constraints imposed by the isentropic assumption on the other.

BACKGROUND DATA FILES

Abstract

Keywords
Atmospheric Processes, General circulation, Atmospheric Processes, Synoptic-scale meteorology, Atmospheric Processes, Theoretical modeling, Atmospheric Processes, Global climate models (1626, 4928), trajectory model sensitivity, ERA-40 reanalysis, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis
Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research
http://www.agu.org/journals/jb/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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