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Grantz et al. 2005
Grantz, K., Rajagopalan, B., Clark, M. and Zagona, E. (2005). A technique for incorporating large-scale climate information in basin-scale ensemble streamflow forecasts. Water Resources Research 41: doi: 10.1029/2004WR003467. issn: 0043-1397.

Water managers throughout the western United States depend on seasonal forecasts to assist with operations and planning. In this study, we develop a seasonal forecasting model to aid water resources decision making in the Truckee-Carson River System. We analyze large-scale climate information that has a direct impact on our basin of interest to develop predictors to spring runoff. The predictors are snow water equivalent (SWE) and 500 mbar geopotential height and sea surface temperature (SST) indices developed in this study. We use local regression methods to provide ensemble (probabilistic) forecasts. Results show that the incorporation of climate information, particularly the 500 mbar geopotential height index, improves the skills of forecasts at longer lead times when compared with forecasts based on snowpack information alone. The technique is general and could be used to incorporate large-scale climate information into ensemble streamflow forecasts for other river basins.

BACKGROUND DATA FILES

Abstract

Keywords
Global Change, Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Hydrology, Estimation and forecasting, Hydrology, Streamflow, Hydrology, Hydroclimatology, Hydrology, Water management, Carson, climate, forecast, nonlinear, nonparametric, Truckee
Journal
Water Resources Research
http://www.agu.org/wrr/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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