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Owens et al. 2005
Owens, M.J., Arge, C.N., Spence, H.E. and Pembroke, A. (2005). An event-based approach to validating solar wind speed predictions: High-speed enhancements in the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model. Journal of Geophysical Research 110. doi: 10.1029/2005JA011343. issn: 0148-0227.

One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near-Earth space, arising from both quasi-steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean-square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest during the rise to solar maximum, and the optimal lead time for 1 AU solar wind speed predictions is found to be 3 days. However, MSE is shown to frequently be an inadequate "figure of merit" for assessing solar wind speed predictions. A complementary, event-based analysis technique is developed in which high-speed enhancements (HSEs) are systematically selected and associated from observed and model time series. WSA model is validated using comparisons of the number of hit, missed, and false HSEs, along with the timing and speed magnitude errors between the forecasted and observed events. Morphological differences between the different HSE populations are investigated to aid interpretation of the results and improvements to the model. Finally, by defining discrete events in the time series, model predictions from above and below the ecliptic plane can be used to estimate an uncertainty in the predicted HSE arrival times.

BACKGROUND DATA FILES

Abstract

Keywords
Space Weather, Models, Space Weather, Forecasting, Interplanetary Physics, Corotating streams, Interplanetary Physics, Solar wind plasma, Interplanetary Physics, Solar cycle variations, solar wind speed, space weather, corotating streams, model validation, time series
Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research
http://www.agu.org/journals/jb/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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