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Detailed Reference Information |
Vecchi, G.A., Wittenberg, A.T. and Rosati, A. (2006). Reassessing the role of stochastic forcing in the 1997–1998 El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters 33: doi: 10.1029/2005GL024738. issn: 0094-8276. |
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We explore the extent to which stochastic atmospheric variability was fundamental to development of extreme sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) during the 1997--8 El Ni¿o. The observed western equatorial Pacific westerly zonal stress anomalies (τax), which appeared between Nov. 1996 and May 1997 as a series of episodic bursts, were largely reproducible by an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensemble forced with observed SST. Retrospective forecasts using a hybrid coupled model (HCM) indicate that coupling only the part of τax linearly related to large-scale tropical Pacific SSTA is insufficient to capture the observed 1997 warming; but, accounting in the HCM for all the τax that was connected to SST, recovers most of the strong SSTA warming. The AGCM-estimated range of stochastic τax forcing induces substantial dispersion in the forecasts, but does not obscure the large-scale warming in most HCM ensemble members. |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Atmospheric Processes, Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Oceanography, Physical, Air/sea interactions (0312, 3339), Oceanography, Physical, ENSO, Geographic Location, Pacific Ocean |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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