EarthRef.org Reference Database (ERR)
Development and Maintenance by the EarthRef.org Database Team

Detailed Reference Information
Jia & Culver 2006
Jia, Y. and Culver, T.B. (2006). Robust optimization for total maximum daily load allocations. Water Resources Research 42. doi: 10.1029/2005WR004079. issn: 0043-1397.

The determination of the pollutant load distribution among different pollutant sources in a watershed is a critical step in total maximum daily load (TMDL) development. Under current TMDL practices, TMDL allocations are typically determined through a trial-and-error approach of reducing pollutant loadings until a watershed simulation model predicts that water quality standards will be met given a margin of safety. Unfortunately, many feasible combinations of load reductions and significant uncertainties may exist. Therefore it is difficult and time-consuming to compare various allocation scenarios using a trial-and-error approach. A robust optimization model is developed in this study to incorporate the uncertainty of water quality predictions and to minimize pollutant load reductions given various levels of reliability with respect to the water quality standards. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation approach is used to explicitly address the uncertainty of a watershed simulation model, the Hydrological Simulation Program--Fortran. The uncertainty is integrated into TMDL allocations using a robust genetic algorithm model linked with a response matrix approach. The developed robust optimization model is demonstrated using a case study based on the Moore's Creek fecal coliform TMDL study. The trade-offs between reliability levels and total load reductions of allocation scenarios are evaluated, and the optimized load reduction scenarios are compared with the scenario generated by a trial-and-error approach and approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The results show that the optimized load reduction scenario requires 30% less load reductions than the scenario approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency at the same reliability level.

BACKGROUND DATA FILES

Abstract

Keywords
Hydrology, Anthropogenic effects (4802, 4902), Hydrology, Modeling, Hydrology, Surface water quality, Hydrology, Watershed, Policy Sciences, Decision making under uncertainty
Journal
Water Resources Research
http://www.agu.org/wrr/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
2000 Florida Avenue N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20009-1277
USA
1-202-462-6900
1-202-328-0566
service@agu.org
Click to clear formClick to return to previous pageClick to submit