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Detailed Reference Information |
Dikpati, M., de Toma, G. and Gilman, P.A. (2006). Predicting the strength of solar cycle 24 using a flux-transport dynamo-based tool. Geophysical Research Letters 33: doi: 10.1029/2005GL025221. issn: 0094-8276. |
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We construct a solar cycle strength prediction tool by modifying a calibrated flux-transport dynamo model, and make predictions of the amplitude of upcoming solar cycle 24. We predict that cycle 24 will have a 30--50% higher peak than cycle 23, in contrast to recent predictions by Svalgaard et al. and Schatten, who used a precursor method to forecast that cycle 24 will be considerably smaller than 23. The skill of our approach is supported by the flux transport dynamo model's ability to correctly 'forecast' the relative peaks of cycles 16--23 using sunspot area data from previous cycles. |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy, Solar activity cycle, Solar Physics, Astrophysics, and Astronomy, Stellar interiors and dynamo theory, Space Weather, Solar effects |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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