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Detailed Reference Information |
Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Hagedorn, R., Palmer, T.N. and Morcrette, J.-J. (2006). Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters 33: doi: 10.1029/2005GL025061. issn: 0094-8276. |
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A set of 44-year seasonal ensemble coupled model forecasts performed with annually updated greenhouse gas concentrations is compared to a standard seasonal ensemble forecast experiment performed with fixed concentrations. The former shows more realistic temperature variability and better forecast quality. The improvement in model variability is due to a better simulation of climate trends and suggests that realistic initial conditions are not enough to reproduce this long-term variability. The better probabilistic forecast quality is mostly due to the increased ability to reliably discriminate the occurrence of events and non-events. These results are relevant for the improvement of operational seasonal forecasts and provide new evidence of the effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition. |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Mathematical Geophysics, Probabilistic forecasting, Atmospheric Processes, Global climate models (1626, 4928), Paleoceanography, Greenhouse gases |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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