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Doblas-Reyes et al. 2006
Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Hagedorn, R., Palmer, T.N. and Morcrette, J.-J. (2006). Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters 33: doi: 10.1029/2005GL025061. issn: 0094-8276.

A set of 44-year seasonal ensemble coupled model forecasts performed with annually updated greenhouse gas concentrations is compared to a standard seasonal ensemble forecast experiment performed with fixed concentrations. The former shows more realistic temperature variability and better forecast quality. The improvement in model variability is due to a better simulation of climate trends and suggests that realistic initial conditions are not enough to reproduce this long-term variability. The better probabilistic forecast quality is mostly due to the increased ability to reliably discriminate the occurrence of events and non-events. These results are relevant for the improvement of operational seasonal forecasts and provide new evidence of the effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition.

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Abstract

Keywords
Mathematical Geophysics, Probabilistic forecasting, Atmospheric Processes, Global climate models (1626, 4928), Paleoceanography, Greenhouse gases
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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