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Hadley et al. 2006
Hadley, S.W., Erickson, D.J., Hernandez, J.L., Broniak, C.T. and Blasing, T.J. (2006). Responses of energy use to climate change: A climate modeling study. Geophysical Research Letters 33: doi: 10.1029/2006GL026652. issn: 0094-8276.

Using a general-circulation climate model to drive an energy-use model, we projected changes in USA energy-use and in corresponding fossil-fuel CO2 emissions through year 2025 for a low (1.2¿C) and a high (3.4¿C) temperature response to CO2 doubling. The low-ΔT scenario had a cumulative (2003--2025) energy increase of 1.09 quadrillion Btu (quads) for cooling/heating demand. Northeastern states had net energy reductions for cooling/heating over the entire period, but in most other regions energy increases for cooling outweighed energy decreases for heating. The high-ΔT scenario had significantly increased warming, especially in winter, so decreased heating needs led to a cumulative (2003--2025) heating/cooling energy decrease of 0.82 quads. In both scenarios, CO2 emissions increases from electricity generation outweighed CO2 emissions decreases from reduced heating needs. The results reveal the intricate energy-economy structure that must be considered in projecting consequences of climate warming for energy, economics, and fossil-fuel carbon emissions.

BACKGROUND DATA FILES

Abstract

Keywords
Biogeosciences, Carbon cycling, Atmospheric Processes, Global climate models (1626, 4928), Policy Sciences, Demand estimation, Policy Sciences, System operation and management, Public Issues, Science policy
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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