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Detailed Reference Information |
Le Quéré, C. (2006). The Unknown and the Uncertain in Earth System Modeling. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 87: doi: 10.1029/2006EO450007. issn: 0096-3941. |
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With the planet heating up, the urgent need to reduce uncertainty in climate projections could have consequences in the way Earth system models evolve. I argue that a period of confusion in the development of models can be beneficial and can lead to improved understanding and reduced uncertainty in due time. I have identified three phases of development in I have identified three phases of development in modeling- the illusion, the chaos, and the relief- through which models seem to evolve before their results can be said to approach the truth with some confidence. |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Global Change, Earth system modeling, Cryosphere, Biogeochemistry (0412, 0414, 1615, 4805, 4912) |
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Journal
Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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