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Rajeevan & Pai 2007
Rajeevan, M. and Pai, D.S. (2007). On the El Niño-Indian monsoon predictive relationships. Geophysical Research Letters 34: doi: 10.1029/2006GL028916. issn: 0094-8276.

Most of the severe droughts over India are associated with El Niqo. However, only less than half of El Niqo events are associated with deficient rainfall over India. In other El Niqo years, Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) was either normal or excess. A recent study suggested that the El Niqo events with the warmest SST anomalies in the central Pacific are more effective in focusing drought producing subsidence over India than events with the warmest SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. They have further suggested that the incorporation of additional information on the spatial distribution of SST anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean in the statistical models should improve monsoon forecast skill. The present study explores this hypothesis on the skill of monsoon forecasts by analyzing SST data for the period 1880--2004. The present study reveals that incorporation of information on the spatial pattern of SST anomalies (by incorporating the Trans Niqo Index) does not improve the association between El Niqo and Indian monsoon rainfall. Simply using the SST index over the central Pacific (Niqo-3.4) may be a better indicator for the association than the Combined Niqo Index derived from Niqo-3 and Trans Niqo Index (TNI).

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Abstract

Keywords
Biogeosciences, Climate dynamics, Atmospheric Processes, Precipitation, Atmospheric Processes, Tropical meteorology, Oceanography, General, Climate and interannual variability (1616, 1635, 3305, 3309, 4513)
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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