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Detailed Reference Information |
Gleisner, H. and Lundstedt, H. (2001). Auroral electrojet predictions with dynamic neural networks. Journal of Geophysical Research 106: doi: 10.1029/2001JA900046. issn: 0148-0227. |
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Neural networks with internal feedback from the hidden nodes to the input [Elman, 1990> are developed for prediction of the auroral electrojet index AE from solar wind data. Unlike linear and nonlinear autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models, such networks are free to develop their own internal representation of the recurrent state variables. Further, they do not incorporate an explicit memory for past states; the memory is implicitly given by the feedback structure of the networks. It is shown that an Elman recurrent network can predict around 70% of the observed AE variance using a single sample of solar wind density, velocity, and magnetic field as input. A neural network with identical solar wind input, but without a feedback mechanism, only predicts around 45% of the AE variance. It is also shown that four recurrent state variables are optimal: the use of more than four hidden nodes does not improve the predictions, but with less than that the prediction accuracy drops. This provides an indication that the global-scale auroral electrojet dynamics can be characterized by a small number of degrees of freedom. ¿ 2001 American Geophysical Union |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Ionosphere, Current systems, Ionosphere, Modeling and forecasting, Magnetospheric Physics, Solar wind/magnetosphere interactions |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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