|
Detailed Reference Information |
Curtis, S., Adler, R.F., Huffman, G.J. and Gu, G. (2004). Westerly wind events and precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean as predictors for El Niño: Climatology and case study for the 2002–2003 El Niño. Journal of Geophysical Research 109: doi: 10.1029/2004JD004663. issn: 0148-0227. |
|
This study expands on recent work linking intraseasonal-to-seasonal variability in observed precipitation and wind from September to March in the eastern Indian Ocean with the initiation of El Ni¿o events during the last 25 years. First, westerly wind burst (WWB) events are defined as days when westerly wind speeds averaged over 5¿--15¿S and 70¿--100¿E were greater than 1.5 standard deviations from the mean. The number of WWB days from September to March was high before the onset of the 1982--1983, 1991--1992, 1997--1998, and 2002--2003 El Ni¿o events, but not the 1986--1987 El Ni¿o. This study suggests that for the 1979--2002 period, variations in precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean is a more robust predictor of El Ni¿o onset than analyzed winds. On the basis of the work of Curtis et al. <2002>, a real-time precipitation-based El Ni¿o Onset Index is presented, which during the austral summer of 2001--2002 successfully predicted the 2002--2003 El Ni¿o. The index focuses on the magnitude of 30--60 day oscillations and mean conditions in the precipitation field. Case studies of high-resolution satellite-based data sets of precipitation, wind, and sea surface temperature (SST) for the 2001--2002 season are examined to better understand how events in the Indian Ocean are linked to Pacific Ocean wind disturbances and SST changes. Twice during this season maxima in precipitation and zonal winds propagated eastward, the first near the equator and the second to the south. For the southern case, warm waters preceded heavy precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean, which preceded strong westerly winds. A cooling of the sea surface followed the wind-rain system. This sequence of events moved through the ocean passage between Indonesia and Australia, suggesting a coupling of convection, wind, and sea surface temperatures on the timescale of days. These case studies provide a basis for how the east Indian Ocean variations are linked to subsequent events in the Pacific Ocean, including the initiation of El Ni¿o events. |
|
|
|
BACKGROUND DATA FILES |
|
|
Abstract |
|
|
|
|
|
Keywords
Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Remote sensing, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Radiative processes, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Precipitation, Oceanography, Physical, El Nino, precipitation, El Niño, onset |
|
Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
|
|
|