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Wilson 1999
Wilson, R.M. (1999). Statistical aspects of major (Intense) Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin during the past 49 hurricane seasons (1950–1998): Implications for the current season. Geophysical Research Letters 26: doi: 10.1029/1999GL004904. issn: 0094-8276.

Statistical aspects of major (intense) hurricanes, those of category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale (e.g., having a maximum sustained wind speed of ≥50 m s-1), in the Atlantic basin during the interval of 1950--1998 are investigated in relation to the El Ni¿o-Southern Oscillation cycle and to the postulated more versus less activity modes for intense hurricane activity. Based on Poisson statistics, when the hurricane season is simply classified as non-El Ni¿o-related (NENR), the probability of having three or more intense hurricanes is ≈53%, while it is only ≈14% when it is classified as El Ni¿o-related (ENR). Including the activity levels (more versus less), the probability of having three or more intense hurricanes is computed to be ≈71% for the more-NENR season, 30% for the less-NENR season, 17% for the more-ENR season, and 12% for the less-ENR season. Because the 1999 hurricane season is believed to be a more-NENR season, the number of intense hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin should be above average in number, probably about 4¿1 or higher.

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Abstract

Keywords
Oceanography, Physical, Air/sea interactions, Oceanography, General, Climate and interannual variability, Global Change, Climate dynamics
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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