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Vannitsem & Nicolis 1994
Vannitsem, S. and Nicolis, C. (1994). Predictability experiments on a simplified thermal convection model: The role of spatial scales. Journal of Geophysical Research 99: doi: 10.1029/94JD00248. issn: 0148-0227.

The amplification of small initial errors in connection with mesoscale atmospheric variability is studied on a simplified thermal convection model. It is found that when the system is perturbed uniformly over the physical space, the initial regime of error dynamics follows a pathway far from the traditional exponential function whose rate is the largest positive Lyapunov exponent. It comprises two stages: (1) a transient decrease of the initial error as a result of the displacement of the system out of its attractor and (2) a superexponential increase whose origin is in the multifractal character of the attractor. Numerical experiments in which the initial error is introduced selectively in a particular scale reveal that perturbations at larger scales grow faster than those at the intermediate and small scales. A qualitative explanation of this unexpected behavior based on intrinsic properties of the dynamics such as the local Lyapunov vectors is advanced. ¿ American Geophysical Union 1994

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Keywords
Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Convective processes, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, General or miscellaneous, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Turbulence
Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research
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American Geophysical Union
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