EarthRef.org Reference Database (ERR)
Development and Maintenance by the EarthRef.org Database Team

Detailed Reference Information
Tucci et al. 2003
Tucci, C.E.M., Clarke, R.T., Collischonn, W., da Silva Dias, P.L. and de Oliveira, G.S. (2003). Long-term flow forecasts based on climate and hydrologic modeling: Uruguay River basin. Water Resources Research 39: doi: 10.1029/2003WR002074. issn: 0043-1397.

This paper describes a procedure for predicting seasonal flow in the Rio Uruguay drainage basin (area 75,000 km2, lying in Brazilian territory), using sequences of future daily rainfall given by the global climate model (GCM) of the Brazilian agency for climate prediction (Centro de Previs¿o de Tempo e Clima, or CPTEC). Sequences of future daily rainfall given by this model were used as input to a rainfall-runoff model appropriate for large drainage basins. Forecasts of flow in the Rio Uruguay were made for the period 1995--2001 of the full record, which began in 1940. Analysis showed that GCM forecasts underestimated rainfall over almost all the basin, particularly in winter, although interannual variability in regional rainfall was reproduced relatively well. A statistical procedure was used to correct for the underestimation of rainfall. When the corrected rainfall sequences were transformed to flow by the hydrologic model, forecasts of flow in the Rio Uruguay basin were better than forecasts based on historic mean or median flows by 37% for monthly flows and by 54% for 3-monthly flows.

BACKGROUND DATA FILES

Abstract

Keywords
Atmospheric Composition and Structure, Biosphere/atmosphere interactions, Hydrology, Hydroclimatology, Hydrology, Runoff and streamflow, Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics, Numerical modeling and data assimilation, Information Related to Geographic Region, South America
Journal
Water Resources Research
http://www.agu.org/wrr/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
2000 Florida Avenue N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20009-1277
USA
1-202-462-6900
1-202-328-0566
service@agu.org
Click to clear formClick to return to previous pageClick to submit