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Robinson et al. 2005
Robinson, R., Zhou, S., Johnston, S. and Vere-Jones, D. (2005). Precursory accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) in a synthetic seismicity catalog: A preliminary study. Geophysical Research Letters 32: doi: 10.1029/2005GL022576. issn: 0094-8276.

A power-law like acceleration of seismic moment release (AMR) has been proposed as a precursor to large earthquakes. Because of problems with real-world data, we have used a synthetic seismicity model of 256 interacting faults embedded in a 3-D elastic half-space to search for periods of AMR preceding the largest events (Mw ~ 7.1). In only 5 of 18 cases does the AMR model fit the data significantly better than a linear moment release, and then only weakly so. This proportion, or higher, occurs in 8% of 1000 randomized catalogs. We conclude that either AMR is unlikely to be a common precursor, or that factors contributing to the AMR pattern in the real world are missing from the synthetic model.

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Abstract

Keywords
Seismology, Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction (1217, 1242), Seismology, Earthquake dynamics, Tectonophysics, Stresses, crust and lithosphere, Tectonophysics, Dynamics and mechanics of faulting
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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