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Detailed Reference Information |
Klotzbach, P.J. (2006). Trends in global tropical cyclone activity over the past twenty years (1986–2005). Geophysical Research Letters 33: doi: 10.1029/2006GL025881. issn: 0094-8276. |
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The recent destructive Atlantic hurricane seasons and several recent publications have sparked debate over whether warming tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are causing more intense, longer-lived tropical cyclones. This paper investigates worldwide tropical cyclone frequency and intensity to determine trends in activity over the past twenty years during which there has been an approximate 0.2¿--0.4¿C warming of SSTs. The data indicate a large increasing trend in tropical cyclone intensity and longevity for the North Atlantic basin and a considerable decreasing trend for the Northeast Pacific. All other basins showed small trends, and there has been no significant change in global net tropical cyclone activity. There has been a small increase in global Category 4--5 hurricanes from the period 1986--1995 to the period 1996--2005. Most of this increase is likely due to improved observational technology. These findings indicate that other important factors govern intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones besides SSTs. |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Global Change, Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Global Change, Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes, Tropical meteorology |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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