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Detailed Reference Information |
Fye, F.K., Stahle, D.W., Cook, E.R. and Cleaveland, M.K. (2006). NAO influence on sub-decadal moisture variability over central North America. Geophysical Research Letters 33: doi: 10.1029/2006GL026656. issn: 0094-8276. |
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A strong statistically significant spectral peak with a frequency of 7--8 years is computed for tree-ring reconstructed summer PDSI averaged at continental and regional scales over North America for the period 1645--1990. A similar, though non-significant spectral peak is computed for instrumental summer PDSI averaged over North America for the shorter period from 1900--1990. The winter NAO index (1781--2002) has a very strong spectral signature at this same 7--8 year sub-decadal frequency and is coherent with summer PDSI across a broad sector of the central U.S. Composite analyses confirm a PDSI response to extremes of the NAO over the central U.S., with drought prevalent during negative extremes, and wetness during positive extremes. The winter NAO index leads summer PDSI and a contingency table analysis indicates that extrema in the winter NAO index may have modest forecast value for the following spring-summer moisture regimes over the central U.S. |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Global Change, Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Hydrology, Drought, Hydrology, Hydroclimatology, Hydrology, Soil moisture, Mathematical Geophysics, Spectral analysis (3205, 3280) |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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