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Detailed Reference Information |
Vrugt, J.A., Clark, M.P., Diks, C.G.H., Duan, Q. and Robinson, B.A. (2006). Multi-objective calibration of forecast ensembles using Bayesian model averaging. Geophysical Research Letters 33: doi: 10.1029/2006GL027126. issn: 0094-8276. |
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Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a method for statistical postprocessing of forecast ensembles from numerical weather prediction models. The BMA predictive probability density function (PDF) of any weather quantity of interest is a weighted average of PDFs centered on the bias-corrected forecasts from a set of different models. However, current applications of BMA calibrate the forecast specific PDFs by optimizing a single measure of predictive skill. Here we propose a multi-criteria formulation for postprocessing of forecast ensembles. Our multi-criteria framework implements different diagnostic measures to reflect different but complementary metrics of forecast skill, and uses a numerical algorithm to solve for the Pareto set of parameters that have consistently good performance across multiple performance metrics. Two illustrative case studies using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and sea level pressure, and multi-model seasonal forecasts of temperature, show that a multi-criteria formulation provides a more appealing basis for selecting the appropriate BMA model. |
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Abstract |
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Keywords
Atmospheric Composition and Structure, Pressure, density, and temperature, Global Change, Climate dynamics (0429, 3309), Global Change, Instruments and techniques, Hydrology, Estimation and forecasting, Hydrology, Uncertainty assessment |
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Publisher
American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C. 20009-1277 USA 1-202-462-6900 1-202-328-0566 service@agu.org |
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